Dr. P.V. Viswanath |
Home/ FIN 647/ Exams/ | ||
Fall 2003 |
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1. Read the following article and answer the questions below:
Price Check: Is Amazon Overvalued?
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Before you move on to mallets or, dare we say, power tools, take comfort in knowing that if you didn't get in on the 900% gain shares have posted since that low, you're not alone. You're in the company of such Yahoo Message Board bears as businessbuddha, who lists his 10 reasons to dump shares now. Among them: price competition from Overstock.com (OSTK), sales-dampening power outages and "huge insider selling." (Three million insider-owned shares were sold within the past six months.)
Wondering whether it's too late to buy? So are a lot of other investors. That makes now the perfect time for a SmartMoney.com Price Check.
For those who missed our soup-to-nuts valuations of eBay (EBAY) in May and Intel (INTC) just last week, here's how the Price Check works. We take news items like Amazon's search-engine venture or its partnership with home-furnishing retailer Bombay (BBA), and we promptly ignore them. That's because we assume that analysts have already worked such information into their earnings estimates. For share-pricing purposes, we're concerned only with income and balance-sheet information, consensus growth projections and the like.
We'll run the numbers through several valuation methods, starting with the simplest and ending with the leading-edge. With each step we'll refine our assumptions and at the end you'll have our take on exactly what the stock is worth.
Ben Graham's
Formula
Warren Buffet says Ben Graham's "The Intelligent Investor,"
published in 1940, taught him how to buy stocks. Graham developed a quick-draw
formula that allows investors to sketch a stock's worth. It looks like
this:
PE = 8.5 + 2G
where PE is the price/earnings ratio and G is the annual rate at which earnings are expected to increase, currently 25% for the next five years for Amazon, according to the Reuters Research's consensus. That gives us a P/E of 58.5. Since the 13 analysts who cover Amazon's shares are looking, on average, for earnings of 57 cents a share in 2003, that implies a current share price of $33.35. But that is, after all, just a sketch. For one thing, we're using pro-forma earnings projections, which ignore special charges. This method doesn't account separately for revenues and margins, something we'll be doing soon.
Discounted
Cash Flow
Discounted-cash-flow analysis seeks to determine what a company's future
payments — whether actual payments like dividends or theoretical reinvested
payments like earnings — are worth today. The assumption (and it's a doozy)
is that those earnings will be reinvested wisely.
We'll use the discounted-cash-flow calculator offered by the brainy tree-swingers at MoneyChimp.com. To start, we enter the 57-cent earnings consensus for 2003 and the 25% long-term earnings-growth projection. We'll also need a stable growth rate for when Amazon slows down in maturity, and a discount rate, or the rate available on alternative investments.
Since this calculator uses a two-stage growth model — a single high-growth period followed by a stable growth period — we'll extend the 25% earnings-growth assumption out 10 years (an admittedly aggressive assumption which we'll be fine-tuning soon), then fall back to a stable growth rate of 4%. The fact that a stable growth period of infinite length would produce a company of infinite size matters little, since the present value of cash flows, say, 20 years out, is tiny.
For the discount rate, we'll use the 10% annual return the Standard & Poor's 500 has achieved over the past 50 years. That gives a preliminary value for shares of $47.78, but that doesn't figure in the risk inherent in Amazon stock.
To account for risk, we'll use the capital asset pricing model, or CAPM, developed by Nobel Laureate William Sharpe. It looks like this:
Risk-adjusted discount rate = risk-free rate + b (benchmark rate - risk-free rate)
where b is beta, the measure of a stock's volatility relative to an index like the S&P 500. Media General Financial Services lists Amazon's beta as 2.6.
Its beta calculation, though, uses a 36-month price regression, which would be a poor figure to use in Amazon's case. The company would appear riskier than it actually is thanks to the helter-skelter tech market of recent years. We'll instead use the Barra Risk Factor found using SmartMoney.com's risk map. It incorporates not just past volatility but also things like earnings stability and balance-sheet strength.
Amazon's risk factor is a 59, meaning that it's "forecasted to have more price volatility than 59% of the stocks in the broad market." We'll call that a "beta" of 1.2. Plugging that plus a risk-free rate of 4.4%, the current 10-year Treasury yield into MoneyChimp's CAPM calculator, we get a risk-adjusted discount rate of 11.12%. Applying that figure to the discounted-cash-flow calculation yields a current value of $38.54 for shares. Here's a table of values produced with different growth assumptions.
Discounted Cash Flow (Risk-Adjusted) | |
High-Growth Rate (Next 10 Years) | Implied Price Today |
15% | $18.65 |
20% | $26.87 |
25% | $38.54 |
30% | $54.91 |
35% | $77.64 |
We're getting there, but the basic math we've used up until now to value shares has been like swinging our aforementioned foam baseball bat at a Mariano Rivera fastball. It's time to call in a big-leaguer.
The Damodaran
Method
Many of the securities analysts whose projections we all follow learned
valuation techniques from finance professor Aswath Damodaran. Either they
attended one of his classes at New York University's Stern School of Business,
or they studied his highly regarded book on the subject, "Investment
Valuation."
Damodaran makes available on his Web site several advanced tools for pricing all types of companies. For our purposes, he recommended his high-growth calculator, which lets you manually input sales data for companies that don't yet have consistently positive net profits. "It allows you to adjust the operating margin over time, which is really the engine behind earnings growth," he says.
Hearing that we were looking at Amazon, Damodaran decided to join in. He's published several previous valuations for the company. In 2000 he said shares were worth $34 when they were trading at $84, and in 2001 he priced them at $19 when they had dropped to $11. Last year, he figured they were worth $25. Investors who've listened to him have made a killing.
This time, we looked at everything from operating leases to future dilution from outstanding stock options. And while we assumed some impressive revenue growth — 30% annually for the next five years, then gradually declining to a stable growth rate of 4% after 10 years (for a compounded average of 21.81% per year) — we adjusted operating margins toward a stable rate each step of the way. As Damodaran puts it, "Amazon cannot have Wal-Mart's (WMT) growth and Ann Taylor's (ANN) margins."
In the end, the analysis produced a value of $36.42, and that's our call for what Amazon's shares are worth today. That's a far cry from the $59 shares fetched on Friday. And it implies that Amazon will rake in $33 billion in sales in 2013, compared with the $5.1 billion projected for 2003 — a huge sales increase. We could make even more aggressive revenue assumptions, but to do so we'd have to change our operating margins accordingly, and the two would offset each other. If you're dying for a table of different revenue inputs with everything else the same, though, see below.
Is Amazon overvalued? We're afraid so. And rather significantly, it seems.
The Damodaran Method | |
High-Growth Rate (Next 10 Years) | Implied Price Today |
15% | $21.53 |
20% | $31.04 |
25% | $44.73 |
30% | $64.19 |
Summary of Implied Values | |||
Graham | DCF | DCF Risk-Adj. | Damodaran |
$33.35 | $47.48 | $38.54 | $36.42 |
2. (15 points) Provide brief definitions for any three of the following terms:
3. (20 points) Answer any two of these in no more than one page, each:
Company | Equity Beta |
Market Cap | Total Debt/Equity |
Helmerich & Payne Inc (HP) | 0.49 | $1.31b | 0.23 |
GlobalSantaFe Corp (GSF) | 1.209 | $5.10B | 0.284 |
4. (20 points) Use the information from problem 3.e. for this question. Suppose you have a new firm in the Oil Well Services & Equipment industry, which has a debt-to-total assets ratio of 0.23. Estimate its equity beta, if the marginal tax rate for all firms is 40%. You also know that Yahoo computes Market Cap as the total dollar value of all outstanding shares (shares times current market price).
5. (20 points) Lear Corporation, a manufacturer of automotive supplies, generated $650 million in free cash flow to the firm (prior to debt payments, but after reinvestment needs and taxes) last year. The firm has a cost of capital of 8.5% and debt outstanding of $3.88 billion. The firm has 66.5 million shares outstanding. The cash flows are expected to grow at the rate of 4.5% a year in perpetuity. Estimate the value of Lear Corporation (as a firm).
6. (Bonus) Use the data from problem 3.e for this question:
1.
2.
3.
4. The asset beta of HP is 0.49/(1+(1-0.4)0.23) = 0.43058; the asset beta of GSF is 1.209/(1+(1-0.4)0.284) = 1.033. The market value of the assets of HP is D+E = (1+D/E)*E = (1.23)(1.31) = 1.6113; similarly the market value of the assets of GSF is (1.284)(5.10) = 6.5484. Hence our estimate of the asset beta of the new company would be an average of 0.43058 and 1.033, weighted by the value of the assets of the two companies, i.e. [(0.43058)*(1.6113)+(1.0330)*(6.5484)]/(1.6113+6.5484) = 0.91404. We can then obtain the equity beta of the new firm as 0.91404[1+(1-0.4)(1.7493/6.41)] = 1.063706.
5. The value of the firm would be 650(1.045)/(.085-.045) using the growing perpetuity formula, which gives us 16981.25 million or 16.981 billion. Hence the D/E ratio is 0.2285.
6. a. The expected rate of return is 4.31 + 0.49(5) = 6.76%
b. The correlation(RHP,Rm)=Cov(RHP,Rm)/[std. dev.(RHP)*std. dev.(Rm)] = beta(RHP)*[std. dev.(Rm)/std. dev.(RHP)] = 0.49(15/12)= 0.6125.
1. The following article entitled, "Risky Business: Can the Capital Markets Solve the Problem of Terrorism Insurance," appeared in the Dec. 4th 2003 issue of the Economist. Please read it (and the additional financial information below the article) and answer the following questions, regarding the capital structure of FIFA:
GOOAAAL! On December 5th Michael Schumacher, six times champion of Formula One motor racing, and other glitterati are due to make the draw for qualifying tournaments for the 2006 World Cup in Germany. That the show goes on is thanks, in large part, to a group of bankers led by Credit Suisse First Boston, a Swiss investment bank, which helped FIFA, the world football federation, insure the world's most popular sporting event against terrorism and other risks.
Such coverage has been hard and expensive to come by since September 11th 2001. AXA, a French insurer, backed out of insuring the 2002 tournament in Asia after that day's attacks. So this time FIFA turned to the capital markets: in September it issued $260m of “cancellation bonds”, the first transfer of terrorist risk to public investors. These will receive a handsome yield in return for underwriting the risk of cancellation. If the tournament is called off, they will lose three-quarters of their principal.
The offering is the latest twist on catastrophe bonds (“cat bonds”), through which investors have in the past assumed the financial risk of big natural disasters. Since cat bonds were first issued in 1997, after Hurricane Andrew in Florida and a huge earthquake in San Francisco caused reinsurance premiums to rocket, over $6.3 billion has been issued, according to Swiss Re, a reinsurer. So far this year, $900m of catastrophe risk has been transferred in this way.
But the explosion in the issuance of cat bonds expected by some has failed to materialise. On the plus side, investors have bought them because Treasury and corporate bond yields are skimpy and because natural disasters are uncorrelated with market swings. Helpfully, there have been few payouts. The bonds' defenders also say they offer secure coverage for many years, as opposed to annual negotiations with flighty insurers. However, the bonds are time-consuming to structure and are usually pricier than reinsurance.
Is the FIFA bond the new face of terrorism insurance? Probably not. FIFA's issue worked because football matches can be relocated and rescheduled relatively easily, making the risk of cancellation low: the World Cup will take place in 12 different stadiums in Germany. And like the bondholders, FIFA, which receives over 90% of its revenues from the tournament, has an enormous interest in the tournament's going ahead. This makes the insuring of the World Cup different from insuring against terrorism-related property damage. Cat bonds may be the way ahead, though, for other big-ticket events.
Here is FIFA's balance sheet for the last four years (http://images.fifa.com/events/congress/2003/FIFA_Financial_Report_E_2002.pdf). Note numbers are in millions of Swiss Francs (CHF).
Balance sheets as of December 31 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
Assets |
102 |
398 |
680 |
647 |
Current Assets |
||||
Cash and cash equivalents |
22 |
321 |
435 |
328 |
Accounts receivable |
20 |
27 |
84 |
61 |
Deferred assets |
2 |
7 |
6 |
53 |
Non-current Assets |
||||
Financial investments |
24 |
19 |
109 |
157 |
Tangible assets |
32 |
19 |
39 |
38 |
Movable property, etc |
2 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
Liabilities and equity |
102 |
398 |
680 |
647 |
Current liabilities |
27 |
48 |
71 |
87 |
Non--current liabilities |
72 |
88 |
78 |
40 |
Deferred liabilities |
54 |
4 |
10 |
147 |
Provisions |
17 |
174 |
367 |
222 |
Association capital (equity) |
-68 |
84 |
154 |
151 |
The financial report (http://www.fifa.com/en/organisation/index.html) states the following:
FIFA ’s balance sheet total has increased by CHF 545 million to CHF 647 million since 1999. At the end of 2002,FIFA ’s current assets totalled CHF 442 million,with liquid assets of CHF 328 mil- lion,accounts receivables of CHF 61 million and deferred assets of CHF 53 million.FIFA ’s non- current assets had reached a value of CHF 205 million,mainly consisting of financial investments of CHF 157 million and tangible assets (i.e.real estate)of CHF 38 million.
The non-current assets of CHF 205 million are en- tirely financed through long-term capital of CHF 373 million (equity and provisions).FIFA ’s liabi- lities of CHF 274 million are fully covered by cur- rent assets of CHF 442 million.The equity ratio amounts to 23%(=CHF 151/647 million). Overall,this shows that FIFA is in a financially comfortable and sound position.
2. (15 points) Define any three of the following terms:
3. (10 points) You have the following information regarding Medtronic,
Inc. (MED). Explain what you think its debt-equity ratio is. Use no more
than one page.
Medtronic, Inc. is a medical technology company that provides lifelong
solutions for people with chronic disease. The Company offers products
and therapies for use by medical professionals to meet the healthcare
needs of their patients. Primary products include those for bradycardia
pacing, tachy-arrhythmia management, heart failure, atrial fibrillation,
coronary vascular disease, endovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease,
heart valve replacement, extra-corporeal cardiac support, minimally invasive
cardiac surgery, malignant and non-malignant pain, diabetes, urological
disorders, gastroenterological ailments, movement disorders, spinal surgery,
neurosurgery, neurodegenerative disorders and ear, nose and throat surgery.
4. (10 points) Answer any one of the following two questions (no more than half a page each):
5. You have the following information for Culpepper, Inc., a toy retail firm. All information, unless specified is in thousands of dollars. Answer the questions below. (Your computations have to be clear to me. If they are muddled, and I cannot figure out what you are doing, I reserve the right not to give you any points.)
Balance Sheet
Assets |
Liability |
||
Fixed Assets | $300 | Long Term Bonds | $100 |
Current Assets | $100 | Equity | $300 |
Total | $400 | Total | $400 |
The firm's income statement is as follows:
Revenues | $250 |
Cost of Good Sold | 175 |
Depreciation | 25 |
EBIT | 50 |
Interest on Long Term Debt | 10 |
Earnings before taxes | 40 |
Taxes | 16 |
Net Income | 24 |
The firm currently has 50,000 shares outstanding. The price of each share is $10. The bonds are selling at par. The firm's current beta is 1.5. The 10-year Treasury bond rate is 4.5%. The average market risk premium over the last 10 years has been 13% computed as the arithmetic average of the difference between the return on equities and the T-bill rate. If the market risk premium is computed as the geometric mean of the difference between the return on equities and the yield on 10-year Treasuries, it works out to 10%. On the other hand, over a 40 year period, these same numbers work out to 7% and 5% respectively.
1.
On the whole, however, cat bonds are more like debt than equity.
Although it is true that firms that are leveraged have an incentive to issue more debt to dispossess bondholders, and though it is true that FIFA is currently somewhat leveraged -- it has at least 40 million CHF of long-term debt, cat bonds would not be the best way for FIFA to dispossess its existing bondholders. Since cat bondholders would bear the brunt of any losses due to World Cup cancellation, existing bondholders would be protected from losses on this count. Furthermore, since cat bondholders would be paid only a quarter of their principal in the case of World Cup cancellation, their issue probably reduces the likelihood of FIFA going bankrupt and having to incur bankruptcy costs. This should be good for all existing bondholders. Consquently, Hal is probably not correct in his assertion.
venture capital: equity financing provided to small and often risky businesses in return for a share in ownership of the firm.
negative pledge clause: a covenant included in the bond indenture that prevents bondholders' claim on the assets from being superseded by future debt that the firm might issue.
sinking fund: this refers to a sum of money that is set aside each year to repay a portion of the bonds in a particular bond issue. Usually the bonds that are retired are chosen at random.
rights offering: right given to the existing investors in a firm to buy additional shares, in proportion to their current holdings, usually at a price much lower than the current market price.
private placement: a sale of securities to one or a few investors, where the terms are negotiated between the firm and the investors.
Medtronic probably does not have stable cashflows -- this would make it difficult for the company to make coupon payments regularly.
Medtronic probably needs flexibility -- it might have new projects or follow-up projects that may require new capital in an unpredicatable fashion. Debt would not provide this flexibility, since coupons have to be paid and the debt has to be repaid after a specified number of years.
4.
Firms whose operating cashflows are positively correlated with interest rates could profitably issue floating rate debt because this would reduce the volatility of the firm's net income. Firms who felt that they could predict future interest rates (and expected them to be lower) would also want to issue floating rate debt.
5.
The firm's cost of equity is 4.5% + 1.5(5) = 12%
The only estimate of the firm's cost of debt, that we have, is Interest on Long Term Debt/Face Value of debt, which works out to 10/100 or 10%, given that the debt was issued at par (hence the book value = face value). The tax rate would seem to be 16/40 or 40%; hence the after-tax cost of debt is (1-0.4)10 or 6%.
The market value of equity is 50000 x 10 or $500m.; the market value of debt is $100m. Hence the firm's weighted average cost of capital is 12(5/6) + 6(1/6) = 11%.